In 2021, researchers at the Center of the American Experiment analyzed the economic costs to consumers of the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), passed into law in 2020 under then-Governor Ralph Northam. They studied two scenarios to analyze costs to consumers and reliability of the grid:
The first examined costs and reliability if the VCEA is fully implemented as written, with all coal-fired and natural gas power plants being taken offline;
The second scenario assumed that Virginia’s existing nuclear, natural gas, and coal-fired power plants are used to optimize affordability and reliability.
Key findings are:
Fully implementing the VCEA, as it is currently written, will raise residential electricity bills by an average of $1,160 annually ($96 per month), with the increase rising to $2,300 in 2045 ($191 per month).
This increase will hit low-income households the hardest; many of these are in southside Virginia, where solar project development is at its most intense. (Note: VCEA pledges to subsidize energy costs for lower-income households although this risks shifting those costs onto other households or adding to Virginia’s budget expenses significantly as rates increase.)
The VCEA increases the unreliability of Virginia’s energy grid by shifting electricity generation to weather-dependent sources and battery storage, making it less resilient and increasing the risks of brownouts and blackouts during periods of peak energy demand.
These two maps use information from Dominion Power, Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), and the PJM queue (required for developers to gain access to Virginia’s electric grid).
The first downloadable map shows just how many acres of land will be consumed by industrial-scale solar projects that are at various stages of planning by developers, if all these projects are completed in coming years. (Answer: over 498,000 acres, which equates to over 750 square miles.)
Virginia solar by number of acres
And the second illustrates how many solar panels will flood into Virginia, if all solar projects are approved and completed. (Answer: over 158 MILLION!) It’s worth asking where, exactly, all those panels will go when solar projects are dismantled.
The APA’s Planning Advisory Service memo outlined several important economic considerations that should be weighed carefully in any decision to approve, modify, or reject a large-scale solar project. The economic factors involved are particularly important since the community itself will be responsible for paying in the end, should the developer fail to meet its promises. Here are a few key excerpts from the memo:
This PAS Memo focuses on the land-use impacts of utility-scale solar facilities, but planners should also be aware of economic considerations surrounding these uses for local governments and communities.
Financial Incentives. Federal and state tax incentives benefit the energy industry at the expense of localities. The initial intent of industry-targeted tax credits was to act as an economic catalyst to encourage the development of green energy. An unintended consequence has been to benefit the solar industry by saving it tax costs at the expense of localities, which don’t receive the benefit of the full taxable rate they would normally receive.
Employment. Jobs during construction (and decommissioning) can be numerous, but utility-scale solar facilities have minimal operational requirements otherwise. Very large facilities may employ one or two full-time-equivalent employees. During the construction phase there are typically hundreds of employees who need local housing, food, and entertainment.
Fiscal Impact. The positive fiscal impact to landowners who lease or sell property for utility-scale solar facilities is clear. However, the fiscal impact of utility-scale solar facilities to the community as a whole is less clear and, in the case of many localities, may be negligible compared with their overall budget due to tax credits, low long-term job creation, and other factors.
planning for utility-scale solar energy facilities, p 7
